US data that moves Indian markets: jobs, CPI and the Fed
Indian markets often move on news from Washington. US economic data and the Federal Reserve's decisions change interest-rate expectations worldwide, which moves the dollar, foreign investors' flows into India, the rupee and the Nifty.
Why the US matters to Indian stocks
When US interest rates are expected to stay high, US bonds pay more and the dollar strengthens. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs/FIIs) tend to pull money out of emerging markets like India, and the rupee weakens. When US rates are expected to fall, the opposite often happens. So US data that changes those expectations ripples into Indian markets the next morning.
The releases to watch
- Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls): usually the first Friday of the month. Jobs added, the unemployment rate and wage growth. Strong numbers can mean rates stay higher for longer.
- CPI inflation: around the middle of the month. The Fed's main worry; a higher-than-expected print is usually bad for stocks.
- PCE inflation: near the end of the month, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
- JOLTS job openings, ADP payrolls and weekly jobless claims: earlier reads on the job market.
- ISM PMI and GDP: how fast the economy is growing.
Fed decision days
The Fed's rate-setting committee, the FOMC, meets eight times a year. Its decision is released at 2:00 pm New York time, followed by the chair's press conference. The dot plot of officials' rate forecasts, published at four of the meetings, gets close attention.
What time is that in India?
Most US data comes out at 8:30 am New York time: 6:00 pm IST while the US is on daylight saving time (roughly March to early November) and 7:00 pm IST otherwise. A Fed decision lands at 11:30 pm or 12:30 am IST. Indian markets are closed by then, so the reaction shows up in GIFT Nifty overnight and at the next morning's open.
Our economic calendar lists these US releases with their times, next to the RBI's dates and India's own data.
For education only. Not investment advice; My Market Desk is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Rules and timings change, so check the exchange or regulator for the current position.